Morbidity numbers, the danger of complacency, and pandemic prep parties

The CDC, MMWR (Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report) is showing numbers on the Swine Flu to May 06, 2009. The details include: Mexico with nearly 12,000 suspected cases, and 1000 confirmed; the United States with 600 confirmed and 800 probable cases. Testing reveals that more than 99% of the probable cases pop positive for the A (H1N1) virus. Both Mexico and the US show a "similar age distribution" in their cases, and here is the clincher….."the percentage of patients requiring hospitalization appears to be higher than would be expected during a typical influenza season."

The international weekly journal of science Nature
points out “Complacency, not overreaction, is the greatest danger posed by the flu pandemic” Recognizing too, “… at this early stage, the consequences of the pandemic are so uncertain that communicating the risks is a delicate matter. Influenza viruses evolve rapidly, making it extremely difficult to predict what this strain might look like a few months from now. If the agencies alert people and the pandemic fizzles out, they will be accused of hyping the threat and causing unnecessary disruption and angst. Indeed, just such a media backlash is already beginning, because most cases so far have been mild. But if the agencies downplay the threat and an unprepared world is hit by a catastrophe on the scale of 1918, the recriminations will come as fast as you can say 'Hurricane Katrina'.”

Specific to the Resilience System is this recognition, “…many governments now have at least some kind of pandemic plan in place, ………. during a severe pandemic, there is only so much they can do. Much of the response will depend on local communities taking action for themselves.”

Nature exhorts scientists to help “by serving as credible voices to inform their communities of the risks and uncertainties, and by pointing people to the pandemic-planning resources on the CDC and WHO websites, the PandemicFlu.gov site, and many others.” I am suggesting there need to be collaborative portals for local government, business, department of health, scientists and experts in flu/pandemic, where they can reach in to plan with, and coordinate at the neighborhood and community level. At the same time, through something like the Resilience Networks, citizens, business, and government can reach outward for expertise and best practice knowledge.

On another note, I am starting to read about the idea of “swine flu parties” where people are thinking self-infecting yourself or your family, is somehow a good idea, given that this flu seems relatively mild, one might take advantage of a naturally circulating “live virus vaccine”. The key here, is the assumption this is relatively mild, which seems debatable, given reports of nausea, vomiting and diarrhea. Not to mention the reputation for flu viruses to be unpredictable, "evolve rapidly, making it extremely difficult to predict what this strain might look like a few months from now" (quoting from above). If a second wave comes around, it could alter in a way that make a subsequent infection possible. For my time and focus, how about we hold RESILIENCE PARTIES, or Community Pandemic Prep Parties!