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Ebola Upsurge Could Undo Progress in Blink of an Eye, Warns Expert

‘Flare-ups occur and, frankly, before you can blink, we could be back to a situation where Ebola starts climbing up again,’ says the UN special envoy for Ebola, David Nabarro. Photograph: Salvatore Di Nolfi/EPA

UN special envoy for Ebola sounds cautionary note amid fears that individuals who ignore official advice could cause spike in infection rate

theguardian.com - by Sam Jones - March 26, 2015

Despite the massive push to bring the number of new Ebola cases down to zero as quickly as possible, there will inevitably be “flare-ups” that could reverse the overall downward trend and prove difficult to contain, the UN’s response co-ordinator has warned.

Dr David Nabarro, the UN’s special envoy for Ebola, said the huge medical, administrative and logistical operation to fight the disease could still be set back by individuals ignoring official advice. . . .

. . . “It’s [about] getting the full geographical coverage and linking everyone together with the most excellent data systems so the databases are comparable and we don’t end up with a mess because different people can’t talk to each other,” he explained.

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WHO - Ebola Situation Report - 1 April 2015

                                       

who.int - April 1, 2015

SUMMARY

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Sierra Leone to start laying off Ebola workers as cases fall: president

REUTERS  by Umaru Fofana                                                                             April l, 2015

FREETOWN-- Sierra Leone's President Ernest Bai Koroma said on Wednesday authorities would soon start laying off staff recruited to fight Ebola as the numbers of cases decline, but these workers would be employed elsewhere, where possible....

Addressing the country about the outbreak, Koroma said the infection rate was falling "week by week" and the number of treatment facilities and staff would be reduced, despite the need for continued vigilance....

At the peak of the crisis last year, authorities were struggling to recruit local and foreign medics to tackle Ebola, which has killed nearly 500 local health workers in West Africa, according to United Nations statistics.

Read complete storyy.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/02/us-health-ebola-leone-idUSKBN0MT01120150402

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Liberia, Sierra Leone gain in Ebola crisis; Guinea struggles

ASSOCIATED PRESS  by Sarah DiLorenzo                                                               April 2, 2015      

(Scroll below for related Wall Street Journal story.)   

DAKAR, Senegal (AP) — When will the world's largest and longest Ebola outbreak end? The West African countries of Sierra Leone and Liberia both appear to be on steady paths to ending the epidemic. The wild card is Guinea, where Ebola hasn't burned as hot but remains stubbornly entrenched.

 

In this file photo dated Friday, March. 27, 2015, a usually busy street is deserted as Sierra Leone enters a three day country wide lockdown on movement of people due to the Ebola virus in the city of Freetown, Sierra Leone. Sierra Leone's 6 million people were told to stay home for three days, except for religious services, beginning Friday as the West African nation attempted a final push to rid itself of Ebola. (AP Photo/ Michael Duff, FILE)

Liberia's last Ebola patient died March 27; it is now counting down the 42 days it must wait to be declared free of Ebola. Meanwhile, Sierra Leone recorded no new infections Wednesday for the second time; on average, it has logged a handful each day in recent days.

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Vanuatu Risks Long-Term Food Insecurity After Monster Cyclone: U.N.

      

Many families affected by Tropical Cyclone Pam are forced to prepare their meals outdoors as seen here in Vanuatu. Photo: WFP/Victoria Cavanagh

reuters.com - by Alisa Tang - March 30, 2015

BANGKOK (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - The monster cyclone that hit Vanuatu earlier this month wiped out more than 90 percent of the archipelago's crops, putting its people at risk of a secondary emergency and long-term food insecurity, the United Nations warned on Monday.

Tropical Cyclone Pam destroyed homes, electricity infrastructure and crops when it swept across the South Pacific island nation on March 13, leaving at least 11 dead.

The United Nations issued an appeal last week for $29.9 million to provide an estimated 166,000 affected people with safe drinking water and shelter, but said only $6.4 million had been pledged.

(READ COMPLETE ARTICLE)

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Amazon Deforestation ‘Threshold’ Causes Species Loss to Accelerate

        

Corn plantation nearby remaining forest in the Amazon region.  Credit: Jose Manuel Ochoa-Quintero

One of the largest area studies of forest loss impacting biodiversity shows that a third of the Amazon is headed toward or has just past a threshold of forest cover below which species loss is faster and more damaging. Researchers call for conservation policy to switch from targeting individual landowners to entire regions.

CLICK HERE - RESEARCH STUDY - Thresholds of species loss in Amazonian deforestation frontier landscapes

University of Cambridge - cam.ac.uk - March 4, 2015

One of the first studies to map the impact of deforestation on biodiversity across entire regions of the Amazon has found a clear ‘threshold’ for forest cover below which species loss becomes more rapid and widespread.    

By measuring the loss of a core tranche of dominant species of large and medium-sized mammals and birds, and using the results as a bellwether, the researchers found that for every 10% of forest loss, one to two major species are wiped out.

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Ebola diaries: Regaining the people’s trust

WHO                                                                                                          March 31, 2015
Cristiana Salvi, a risk communications specialist from WHO’s European regional office was deployed to Guinea at the end of April – early May 2014 to provide social mobilization support to the Ebola response. Social mobilization involves working with communities to gain their acceptance of the need for early identification of people with illness, early treatment and identification and follow up of all people who have been in contact with people confirmed to have Ebola virus disease.

 Cristiana was among the first from WHO offices other than Headquarters and the African office to provide support to the field response, many others followed from the “wider WHO”. She travelled to Gueckedou where communities had begun to hide people who were sick, fearing treatment centres, believing rumours Ebola response teams were there for sinister purposes. This is what she found.

Excerpt:

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Faulty modeling studies led to overstated predictions of Ebola outbreak

MEDICAL EXPRESS                                                                       MARCH 31, 2015

(scroll down for complete paper.)

Frequently used approaches to understanding and forecasting emerging epidemics—including the West African Ebola outbreak—can lead to big errors that mask their own presence, according to a University of Michigan ecologist and his colleagues.

Last September, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated—based on computer modeling—that Liberia and Sierra Leone could see up to 1.4 million Ebola cases by January 2015 if the viral disease kept spreading without effective methods to contain it. Belatedly, the international community stepped up efforts to control the outbreak, and the explosive growth slowed.

"Those predictions proved to be wrong, and it was not only because of the successful intervention in West Africa," King said. "It's also because the methods people were using to make the forecasts were inappropriate."

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Guinea finds three Ebola cases in the alumina hub of Fria

REUTERS   by Saliou Samb                              March 31, 2105

CONAKRY --Guinea has detected at least three new cases of Ebola in the alumina hub of Fria, according to the national coordination of the fight against the disease, as authorities blamed popular resistance for hampering the battle against the virus.

Fria is home to the only alumina smelter in the West African country, Friguia, which produced some 630,000 tonnes of alumina a year until it was shuttered by Russian aluminium giant RUSAL in 2012.

The report noted the refusal by the local population in Conakry to hand over two other suspected cases, despite the intervention of local authorities. It said families in the town of Coyah, 50 km ( miles) from Conakry had refused to follow contacts of an Ebola case.

The resistance of local communities, which refuse to admit the existence of the disease, has dogged efforts to eradicate Ebola in Guinea since it was detected in March 2014

Read complete story.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/31/us-health-ebola-guinea-idUSKBN0MR1TL20150331

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