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Africa Resilience Initiative

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The mission of this working group is to articulate and shape issues of resilience and sustainability on the continent of Africa as they may be implemented as reforms of current policies, as well as contemplate and make recommendations for more extensive critiques and proposals for national, provincial, and local systems transformation, as may be necessary or desirable beyond the scope of traditional reforms being undertaken by the current African national governments and local government proposals in Africa.

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This working group is focused on developing an Africa Resilience Initiative to ensure resilience and sustainability for all Africans.
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Members

Aboubacar Conte admin Anthony bnorton Carrielaj Chisina Kapungu
ChrisAllen craig.sevcik Dr Ojia Adamolekun efrost Elhadj Drame Grace Kim
Hadiatou Balde jranck Kathy Gilbeaux mdmcdonald MDMcDonald_me_com mike kraft
njchapman Norea SmShako TacarraB Tjivekumba Kandjii

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Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak in Nigeria: Transmission Dynamics and Rapid Control

ncbi.nlm.nih.gov - Epidemics. 2015 Jun;11:80-4. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2015.03.001. Epub 2015 Mar 21

Abstract

International air travel has already spread Ebola virus disease (EVD) to major cities as part of the unprecedented epidemic that started in Guinea in December 2013. An infected airline passenger arrived in Nigeria on July 20, 2014 and caused an outbreak in Lagos and then Port Harcourt. After a total of 20 reported cases, including 8 deaths, Nigeria was declared EVD free on October 20, 2014. We quantified the impact of early control measures in preventing further spread of EVD in Nigeria and calculated the risk that a single undetected case will cause a new outbreak. We fitted an EVD transmission model to data from the outbreak in Nigeria and estimated the reproduction number of the index case at 9.0 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.2-15.6). We also found that the net reproduction number fell below unity 15 days (95% CI: 11-21 days) after the arrival of the index case. Hence, our study illustrates the time window for successful containment of EVD outbreaks caused by infected air travelers.

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Managing the Risk and Impact of Future Epidemics: Options for Public-Private Cooperation

submitted by Denis Gilhooly

World Economic Forum
Prepared in collaboration with the Boston Consulting Group (BCG)

CLICK HERE - Managing the Risk and Impact of Future Epidemics: Options for Public-Private Cooperation

CLICK HERE - REPORT - Managing the Risk and Impact of Future Epidemics: Options for Public-Private Cooperation
(20 page .PDF report)

The Ebola outbreak in West Africa was a public health emergency of new proportions that presented unprecedented challenges for the international community. Aside from the significant social and economic impact it had on many West African countries, the epidemic also triggered a range of innovative, flexible partnership responses from businesses and civil society that complemented the channels of official assistance to affected countries.

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The contribution of Ebola viral load at admission and other patient characteristics to mortality in a Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) Ebola Case Management Centre (CMC), Kailahun, Sierra Leone, June –October, 2014

m.jid.oxfordjournals.org - J Infect Dis. (2015) doi: 10.1093/infdis/jiv304 First published online: May 22, 2015

Abstract

This paper describes patient characteristics, including Ebola viral load, associated with mortality in an MSF Ebola case management centre.

Out of 780 admissions between June and October 2014, 525 (67%) were positive for Ebola with a known outcome. The crude mortality rate was 51% (270/525). Ebola viral load (whole blood sample) data was available on 76% (397/525) of patients. Univariate analysis indicated viral load at admission, age, symptom duration prior to admission and distance travelled to the CMC were associated with mortality (p value<0.05). The multivariable model predicted mortality in those with a viral load at admission greater than 10 million copies per millilitre (p value<0.05, Odds Ratio>10), aged 50 years or more (p value=0.08, Odds Ratio=2) and symptom duration prior to admission less than 5 days (p value=0.14). The presence of confusion, diarrhoea and conjunctivitis were significantly higher (p value<0.05) in Ebola patients who died.

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New Thinking on Countering Outbreaks

                                                        

If Ebola has taught us anything, it is that there is room for innovation in the way we respond to outbreaks.

medium.com - by Paul G. Allen - April 30, 2015

It has been more than a year since we began tackling this latest epidemic and, while significant progress has been made, there are still challenges to be overcome and gaps to be filled. . . .

. . . Just last week, I partnered with Skoll Global Threats Fund and USAID to host the Ebola Innovation Summit — an interactive event, designed to bring new tools, people, ways of thinking and ultimately innovations to the forefront.

The event drew a diverse group of people from around the world — from the tech and private sectors to nonprofits, government and academia. The collective commitment of this group is a great example for how we should collaborate to tackle global problems like Ebola.

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Did Authorities Use the Wrong Approach to Stop Ebola?

A new study suggests there was a better way to respond to the Ebola outbreak

TIME MAGAZINE by Alexandra Sifferlin                                                      May 26, 2015

It’s known that the response to the most recent Ebola outbreak, which as of Tuesday had infected more than 27,000 people and killed 11,130, was far too slow. Now, a new studysuggests that even once they got started, their approach to curbing the spread wasn’t the most efficient or effective.Read complete story.

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The Swift Unraveling of Fragile Peace in Burundi

      

Refugees from Burundi arrive at the Mahama camp in Rwanda. The political crisis in Burundi has driven thousands to seek refuge in neighboring countries. Photo by: Thomas Conan / ECHO / CC BY-ND

devex.com - by Andrew Green - May 25, 2015

A failed coup and ongoing political conflict in Burundi have sparked a regional refugee crisis and stalled much-needed development projects in one of the world’s poorest countries.

This after Burundi spent the past decade attempting to overcome a post-independence period marred by a brutal civil war played out largely along ethnic lines. . . .

. . . The 10 years of relative peace allowed humanitarian partners to transition from emergency relief to long-term development projects in a country consistently ranked among the five poorest in the world. Now many of those partners have evacuated, as the country’s political situation has unraveled over the past month.

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The Other Grade 3 Emergencies Apart From Ebola

         

Men walk past damaged buildings after a 7.8-magnitude earthquake hit Nepal on April 25. The disaster is just one of six Grade 3 emergencies that require a massive response from the World Health Organization.
Photo by: Laxmi Prasad Ngakhusi / UNDP Nepal

devex.com - by Jenny Lei Ravelo - May 21, 2015

There is no doubt that Ebola was 2014’s biggest health emergency, which required — and continues to command — a massive response from the World Health Organization and the wider international community.

But it was not the only emergency that demanded WHO’s attention and resources over the course of the past year.

During the special session of the executive board on Ebola in January, member states requested the health agency submit a report containing information on all Grade 3 emergencies the organization responded to as from May 2014.

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Doctors Link Risky Burials to Ebola Rise in West Africa

          

nytimes.com - by Adam Nossiter - May 19, 2015

Only days after declaring the lowest number of new Ebola cases in Guinea and Sierra Leone this year, officials at the World Health Organization said Tuesday that there had been a nearly fourfold increase during the most recent week of reporting, to about 35 new cases.

With Liberia, the other West African nation at the center of the epidemic, being declared free of Ebola this month, the recent drop in infections in Sierra Leone and Guinea had offered hope that the worst Ebola outbreak in history might end soon. . . .

. . . Health officials said that sharp falls and rises were normal as an epidemic approached its end. But they also said that some persistent risky practices, like unsafe burials of Ebola victims in Guinea, had contributed to the rise.

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After Ebola, a Look at How Africa Can Respond to Future Health Emergencies

                 

undp.org - theglobalobservatory.org - by Michael R. Snyder - May 14, 2015

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Guinea - Resurgence of Ebola in Boffa, Forecariah and Dubréka (Matam)

africaguinee.com - by BAH Aïssatou - May 16, 2015

(English translation provided below)

(Links to most recent WHO and UNMEER Situation Reports provided below)

Ebola : Nouveau rebondissement de l’épidémie en Guinée…

CONAKRY- Alors que l’épidémie Ebola tendait vers sa fin en Guinée,  elle vient de faire  un rebondissement dans certaines préfectures situées en basse Guinée et à Conakry.  20 cas confirmés ont été enregistrés ces derniers jours, a appris africaguinee.com.

Cette information rapportée par le chargé de  communication à la Coordination de  Lutte Contre Ebola, Fodé Tass Sylla  indique aussi que 5 cas positifs ont été enregistrés à Boffa, Dubréka et Forécariah et  (Matam), dans la seule journée du jeudi 14 mai.  Avec un total de 27 cas d’hospitalisation dont  18 cas  confirmés dans les Centres de traitements d’Ebola. 

 Les raisons  de cette situation  s’expliquent  par le déplacement des malades et des personnes contacts d’une localité  à une autre ;  et le déplacement des personnes vers les cérémonies funèbres, affirme Fodé Tass Sylla

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