Guinea Resilience System

Cases are dropping so rapidly that Liberians are talking about the disease in the past tense. They shouldn’t be.

 FOREIGN POLICY                                                                               Nov. 7, 2014

By Laurie Garrett

MONROVIA --

...The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (in September) predicted that unless the world mobilized on a scale unprecedented in the history of disease outbreaks, the countries of Liberia and Sierra Leone could by Feb. 1, 2015 have a combined 1.4 million cases, including 980,000 deaths.

Just six weeks later, the picture is so markedly different that some Liberians talk about the epidemic using the past tense. And that worries Alex Gasasira, the acting director of the WHO in Liberia, deeply.

"Over the last six weeks efforts by everybody have resulted in a scaled-up response. So now we are slightly ahead of the virus," Gasasira told

But we are nowhere where we need to be. We are still in a very dangerous situation."

NEW ENGLAND COMPLEX SYSTEMS INSTITUTE                                                                        Oct. 27, 2014
ABSTRACT
By Kia Hall and Yaneer Bar-Yam
The number of cases of Ebola in West Africa has been growing exponentially, and projections assume that this dynamic will continue. However, recent case reports from Liberia indicate a change. The number of new confirmed cases reported by WHO has actually diminished for five weeks in a row.
The WHO report suggests that this may be due to underreporting under conditions of high levels of stress of the number of cases taking place.

Here we report that there appears to be a sound reason for the decreasing number of cases—a change in response strategy that is working. Understanding this dynamic is of critical importance for addressing the outbreak in Sierra Leone and Guinea. In particular the number of cases in Sierra Leone continues to grow exponentially.

Discussions with a WHO response coordinator in Liberia indicates that a change in strategy from individual reporting and contact tracing to community based screening for early detection and population wide behavior change happened in mid September.

HOMELAND SECURITY NEWS WIRE                                                                             Nov.6, 2014

The University of Toronto, Chematria, and IBM are combining forces in a quest to find new treatments for the Ebola virus.

Using a virtual research technology invented by Chematria, a startup housed at U of T’s Impact Center, the team will use software that learns and thinks like a human chemist to search for new medicines. Running on Canada’s most powerful supercomputer, the effort will simulate and analyze the effectiveness of millions of hypothetical drugs in just a matter of weeks.

“What we are attempting would have been considered science fiction, until now,” says Abraham Heifets, a U of T graduate and the chief executive officer of Chematria. “We are going to explore the possible effectiveness of millions of drugs, something that used to take decades of physical research and tens of millions of dollars, in mere days with our technology.”

Read complete article

Medical discussion of why some children suvive Ebola and others do not

NEW YORK TIMES                                   Nov. 10, 2014
By Sheri Fink, MD

... Over and over, doctors here have been confounded by the divergent paths of patients whose cases appeared similar at first. “No matter how long we were there, we didn’t know how to predict it,” said Dr. Steve Whiteley, a California emergency physician who volunteered.