Transmission Models of Historical Ebola Outbreaks

CDC,  by John Drake and others Volume 21, Number 8—August 2015

 To guide the collection of data under emergent epidemic conditions, we reviewed compartmental models of historical Ebola outbreaks to determine their implications and limitations. We identified future modeling directions and propose that the minimal epidemiologic dataset for Ebola model construction comprises duration of incubation period and symptomatic period, distribution of secondary cases by infection setting, and compliance with intervention recommendations....

...Collectively, these studies underscore that practical decisions in modeling dictate trade-offs between fitting to limited data and explicit representation of reality, including interventions. A model with a single transmission rate might fit well to data but might not be useful for decision making that evaluates intervention effects in different transmission contexts. A model with 3 transmission rates might represent transmission in community, nosocomial, and funeral contexts (e.g., [5]), but the 3 parameters are unlikely to be uniquely identifiable. ...
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http://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/21/8/14-1613_article