Australia flu model: 20% morbidity = 80,000 hospitalized and 6000 deaths

Article from: The Australian

SWINE flu could infect one in five Australians, kill up to 6000 and hospitalise up to 80,000 if left unchecked and untreated, according to the first official modelling of the disease's potential spread.

Federal Health Minister Nicola Roxon yesterday announced a hasty redesign of Australia's pandemic management plan and alert phases to keep the toll from the H1N1 flu strain below those levels, but acknowledged the disease had spread beyond her power to contain it.

Health insurers refuse to limit rescission of coverage

Susan Walsh / Associated Press
An insurance company "is supposed to honor its commitments and stand by you in your time of need," Rep. Bart Stupak (D-Mich.) said.
Lawmakers ask three executives if they'll stop dropping customers except where they can show "intentional fraud." All say no.

By Lisa Girion
June 17, 2009

Weapon against epidemics: Cell phones

Disease-control software in cell phones is touted as boon to global public health

More than half of world's cell phones are in developing countries

Health workers in Kenya stopped spread of polio in '07 using EpiSurveyor

Kenyan health care worker: Relaying information at appropriate time is life-saving

updated 7:38 a.m. EDT, Tue June 16, 2009
Next Article in Technology »

By Azadeh Ansari
CNN

New Strain of H1N1 in Brazil

Brazilian scientists have identified a new strain of the H1N1 virus after examining samples from a patient in Sao Paulo, their institute said Tuesday. The variant has been called A/Sao Paulo/1454/H1N1 by the Adolfo Lutz Bacteriological Institute, which compared it with samples of the A(H1N1) swine flu from California. The genetic sequence of the new sub-type of the H1N1 virus was isolated by a virology team lead by one of its researchers, Terezinha Maria de Paiva, the institute said in a statement.

For more information:

"Building Resilient Communities" from World Bank Social Safety Net Team

New toolkit release - 'Building Resilient Communities'

The Social Protection Anchor Team [World Bank] recently launched the Building Resilient
Communities toolkit, an instrument designed to help social protection

Obama Pledges $73M To Zimbabwe

Monday, June 15, 2009

Following talks with Zimbabwean Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai at the White House Friday, President Obama pledged $73 million in aid to the country, AFP/Google.com reports (Carmichael, AFP/Google.com, 6/13). The U.S. aid, however "will not be going to the government directly because we continue to be concerned about consolidating democracy, human rights and rule of law," Obama said (Stolberg, New York Times, 6/13), but channeled through appropriate aid agencies (ZimOnline, 6/15).

Boston Globe Examines U.S. Global Health Strategy

Monday, June 15, 2009

The Boston Globe examines the U.S. strategy towards global health aid. "President George W. Bush scored major advances in his administration's worldwide campaign against AIDS," and "[t]he Obama administration believes it can leverage Bush's successes into an assault against a much broader array of diseases that afflict poor countries," writes the Globe.

Pandemic Preparedness at the Community Level

For local guidance, poiicies, planning tools, training modules, capacity maps, communication, and advocacy, see:

http://pandemicpreparedness.org/

Flu researchers call for enhanced swine surveillance

Lisa Schnirring Staff Writer
Jun 8, 2009 (CIDRAP News) – Government officials and researchers may have underestimated the potential role of pigs as "mixing vessels" for influenza viruses and the importance of swine surveillance for identifying new pandemic threats, veterinary experts from Mexico asserted recently.

The group based their conclusions on two genetic analyses tracing the evolution of the novel H1N1 virus that lend support to the mixing vessel theory. Their findings appeared in the Jun 4 issue of Eurosurveillance.

Following virus protein clues

Serious H1N1 cases in Canadian Inuits raise concern

Colleagues,

Now that the global SO-H1N1/2009 outbreak has overwhelmed our capacities to track and report on the number of cases, one of the mission critical activities is monitoring clusters of severe illness, Please note the cluster of severe cases in Northern Canada in the article below. These populations were also hit hard with high mortality rates in 1918.

Outbreak Trigger Points

Trigger Point 1: WHO Alert 3: Pathogen proven to cause human to human transmission
Trigger Point 2: WHO Alert 4: Pathogen creating human to human spread in 1 country
Trigger Point 3: WHO Alert 5: Pathogen creating increasing cases in at least 2 countries
Trigger Point 4: WHO Alert 6: Pathogen spreading worldwide
Trigger Point 5: Disease spreading within one’s own country
Trigger Point 6: Disease spreading within one’s own region, or where you have traveled
Trigger Point 7: Disease spreading within one’s community, or where you have traveled

Australia flu 'may tip pandemic'

The World Health Organization last declared a pandemic 41 years ago
A sharp increase in swine flu cases in Australia may mean the infection has become a pandemic, the World Health Organization says.
For that to happen, officials would have to verify that the disease had become established outside North America, where the crisis began.
"Once I get indisputable evidence, I will make the announcement," said WHO director general, Margaret Chan.
More than 1,200 people have contracted the virus in Australia - none fatally.
The total means Australia has seen a four-fold increase in a week.

WHO To Incorporate Disease Severity Into Pandemic Alert Scale

KFF Monday, June 08, 2009

A meeting of the WHO's emergency committee held Friday to discuss the H1N1 (swine) flu ended without a pandemic declaration, but experts concluded that declarations would now be based upon the severity and transmission pattern of a virus, Reuters reports (Nebehay, Reuters, 6/5). "The Emergency Committee is composed of international experts and its task is to give advice to the WHO chief on influenza outbreak responses," according to Xinhua writes (Xinhua, 6/6).

Avian Flu Fears Said to Help U.S. Prepare for Swine Flu

June 4, 2009
By Donald G. McNeil Jr.

Six years of worrying about bird flu did much to prepare the United States for the current swine flu outbreak, federal officials and an independent monitoring group said Thursday, but they cautioned that there were still gaps in planning.

After the H5N1 avian flu emerged widely in Asia in 2003, killing about 60 percent of those infected by it, many countries took steps to head off the crisis that would emerge if that virus were to acquire the ability to jump easily from human to human. It has not, but a number of the measures were helpful.

Pandemicflu.gov specific sub sites and checklists

From JR:
I recommend visiting the pandemicflu.gov website as a starting point.

This is the state and local homepage http://www.pandemicflu.gov/plan/states/index.html

This health insurer planning checklist might relate to crisis care
http://www.pandemicflu.gov/plan/workplaceplanning/healthinsurer.html

The faith based check list was interesting http://www.pandemicflu.gov/plan/community/faithcomchecklist.html

Suggestion: collate GHI checklist from the 3 above.

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