submitted by Stephen Morse

elifesciences.org - September 8, 2014 - eLife 2014;3:e04395
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.04395

Ebola virus disease (EVD) is a complex zoonosis that is highly virulent in humans. The largest recorded outbreak of EVD is ongoing in West Africa, outside of its previously reported and predicted niche. We assembled location data on all recorded zoonotic transmission to humans and Ebola virus infection in bats and primates (1976–2014). Using species distribution models, these occurrence data were paired with environmental covariates to predict a zoonotic transmission niche covering 22 countries across Central and West Africa. Vegetation, elevation, temperature, evapotranspiration, and suspected reservoir bat distributions define this relationship. At-risk areas are inhabited by 22 million people; however, the rarity of human outbreaks emphasises the very low probability of transmission to humans. Increasing population sizes and international connectivity by air since the first detection of EVD in 1976 suggest that the dynamics of human-to-human secondary transmission in contemporary outbreaks will be very different to those of the past.

New tools aim to deliver quicker test results—and prevent disease from spreading

(Two stories, scroll down.)

 WALL STREET JOURNAL by Betsy Mckay                           Feb. 17, 2015

USA TODAY  by Liz Sazbo                                                                                  Feb. 17, 2015
The unpredictable Ebola outbreak in West Africa is thwarting health officials' best efforts both to contain the epidemic, as well as test new treatments and vaccines.

Biologist Olivier Mbaya works with serum samples from healthy volunteer participants in a European study of an experimental Ebola vaccine,, at the Vaccine Research Center at the National Institutes of Health in Bethesda, Md., Wednesday, Feb. 4, 2015. (Photo: Cliff Owen, AP)

The number of new Ebola cases has risen sharply in the West African nation of Guinea, for example, even as researchers wonder if there will be enough patients in neighboring Liberia to test experimental vaccines.

Just a few weeks ago, the number of new Ebola cases was falling in all three West African countries....

EDITORIAL: NEW YORK TIMES                                       Feb. 17, 2015
President Obama has announced that almost all of the American troops sent to West Africa to help contain the Ebola epidemic will be withdrawn soon. That makes sense because they have largely completed the work they were sent to do. The next phase of the battle will rely on public health measures carried out by local and international health workers and experts.

Despite major gains, about 100 new cases are detected each week. It will take a concerted effort, backed financially by the United States and others, to drive that number down to zero....

The main task now facing public health workers is to find all people infected with Ebola and trace and isolate all their contacts to prevent passing the virus to others. The goal is to eradicate all traces of the virus from the afflicted countries. A well-trained work force will be essential to this task. As Mr. Obama warned last week, “Every case is an ember that if not contained can light a new fire.”

Read complete editorial.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/16/opinion/mission-not-yet-accomplished.html

 In October, scientists set out to do something unprecedented – conduct a drugs trial during an epidemic to find a treatment for a lethal disease. Could they make history and change the way we deal with outbreaks?

THE GUARDIAN  by Sarah Boseley                           Feb, 17, 2015

In depth description of efforts by a group of Oxford University scientists to run field trials of drugs for use against Ebola.

" ...The little band of scientists had flown to Guinea on 16 October to do something that had never been successfully done before – set up a trial of experimental drugs against an infectious disease in the middle of an epidemic. Because the Ebola virus does not exist at low levels in any population, unless you run a properly conducted trial while the storm is raging, you will never have drugs that are proven to be effective. The Oxford team’s trial would not only aim to find a drug that worked against Ebola but also to establish a blueprint for the way drug trials would be run during outbreaks in the future. This did not just apply to fighting Ebola: if the scientists were successful, their trial would develop protocols for testing drugs for any epidemic, be it Sars or flu...."

Read complete story.

AFP                                                                                                                    Feb. 17, 2015

London--  A team of leading international scientists on Tuesday called for new Ebola vaccines to be made available in months rather than years and warned against complacency after a reduction in infection rates.

(Scroll down for link to complete report.)

"Despite falling infection rates in west Africa, the risk that the current Ebola outbreak may not be brought completely under control remains," said Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust, Britain's biggest medical charity.

"The accelerated development of candidate vaccines... is essential," said Farrar, who co-chairs a group of 26 international experts on vaccine development.

Read complete story.

http://news.yahoo.com/scientists-warn-against-complacency-ebola-vaccines-004937305.html;_ylt=AwrBEiHDVuNUhDcAfsPQtDMD

Recommendations for Accelerating the Development of Ebola Vaccines: Report & Analysis

WIRED  by Maryn McKenna                                                                                           Feb. 16, 2015
Interview with F. Zeela Zaizay, a registered nurse and the Liberian team leader for MAP International, a Christian medical-assistance nonprofit. MAP, which is based in Atlanta and has sent $1.7 million’ worth of supplies such as “no touch” infrared thermometers and protective equipment for health workers, and helped organize Ebola-education efforts in townships and on local radio.

“We are having an average now of less than one case per day,” he told me in a Skype call from Monrovia, Liberia’s capital. “That shows we have made tremendous gains in the fight against Ebola. But the practices that led to the gains we are having are being abandoned just as the cases are declining too, so it brings about fear. If we are not careful we could have more cases again.”

DEVEX    by Molly Anders                                                                                                   Feb. 16, 2015

Interview with Liberian Assistant Minister of Health Tolbert Nyenswah about his vision for the development community’s role in a post-Ebola Liberia: 

Conakry, Guinea --Statement issued by the heads of Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone upon approving an operational framework designed to reduce new Ebola infections to zero within 60 days.

The framework calls for infection prevention and control, social mobilization, community engagement, surveillance, cross border collaboration. 

The leaders also "advocated for a seamless and responsible exit by international partners dictated by the epidemiology and by the adequate transfer of capacity to national institutions."

The statement includes a list of developments and responses.

Read complete statement.

https://ebolaresponse.un.org/sites/default/files/150216-_unmeer_external_situation_report.pdf

ASSOCIATED PRESS  by Jonathan Paye-Layleh                                                                               Feb. 16, 2015

MONROVIA, Liberia — Students in Liberia began returning to the classroom Monday after a six-month closure during the Ebola epidemic that left thousands dead in this West African country.

In the capital, lines formed outside entrances where returning students' temperatures were being taken. Ebola's main symptom is a high fever, and only those who are sick can spread the deadly virus to others.

Deputy Education Minister Remses Kumbuyah said more than 5,000 kits were distributed to schools that included thermometers and chlorine for hand-washing.

Read complete story.

http://news.yahoo.com/liberia-schools-reopen-6-month-ebola-closure-102403539.html;_ylt=AwrBEiHK9eFUTkwAAOHQtDMD

The company producing the new Ebola treatment for an FDA-approved test suddenly pulled out of Liberia, leaving researchers confused.

BUZZFEED                by Hayes Brown                                                                               Feb. 13, 2015

...An FDA-approved trial of the drug brincidofovir, meant to treat rather than prevent Ebola, had already begun in Liberia’s capital of Monrovia when Chimerix, the company that produced the drug, pulled out of the trial at the end of January. The clinical trial partners decided to end the trial on Feb. 3.

Peter Horby, who led the University of Oxford research team conducting the study, called the drug company’s decision “a bit abrupt.”

A woman is injected by a health care worker as she takes part in an Ebola virus vaccine trial in Monrovia Abbas Dulleh / Via AP

AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE-- by Mouctar Bah                                   Feb. 15, 2015                    

Conakry  - The leaders of the countries devastated by the west African Ebola outbreak vowed at a summit in Guinea on Sunday to eradicate the virus by mid-April.

A Guinea's health worker wearing protective suit holds masks at an Ebola Donka treatment centre in Conakry on December 8, 2014 (AFP Photo/Cellou Binani)

Guinea's President Alpha Conde and his Liberian and Sierra Leone counterparts Ellen Johnson Sirleaf and Ernest Bai Koroma made the pledge after day-long closed talks in the Guinean capital Conakry.

Hadja Saran Daraba Kaba, the secretary-general of the Mano River Union bloc grouping the countries, said their presidents "commit to achieving zero Ebola infections within 60 days, effective today".

The summit came with infections having dropped rapidly across the countries, although the World Health Organization says Guinea and Sierra Leone remain a huge concern as both have seen a recent spike in new confirmed cases.

Read complete story.

Agency seeks a new model after flaws revealed by Ebola crisis.

COMMENTARY MEDPAGE TODAY by Michael Smith            Feb. 15, 2015 

As the Ebola epidemic drags on, the World Health Organization is in danger of losing its credibility as a bulwark against infectious disease.

The West African epidemic is a "mega-crisis (that) overwhelmed the capacity of WHO," according to Director-General Margaret Chan, MD, speaking to reporters in late January.

To prevent a similar crisis in the future, Chan has proposed a package of reforms, including a large contingency fund for emergencies, an increase in the number of trained people able to deploy quickly to a crisis site, and structural changes to streamline the famously unwieldy organization.

Whether those get anywhere is the vital question, according to Lawrence Gostin, JD, of the O'Neill Institute for National and Global Health Law at Washington's Georgetown University.

CENTER FOR INFECTIOUS DISEASE AND POLICY by  Lisa Schnirring                                                      Feb. 13, 2015

Novavax yesterday announced the launch of the first human trial of its recombinant Ebola vaccine, which will make it the fourth candidate vaccine to be tested in phase 1 trials.

Novavax's product is a glycoprotein recombinant nanoparticle vaccine adjuvanted with Matrix M (Ebola GP) to boost immune response. Conducted in Australia, the study will test the safety and immunogenicity of the vaccine, with and without the adjuvant, in 230 healthy adults ages 18 to 50. Subjects will be given two intramuscular injections 3 weeks apart....

Three other Ebola vaccines are in clinical trials. Phase 2 and 3 studies of the two vaccines that are furthest along in trials got under way in Liberia at the end of January. They include two vector virus vaccines, ChAd3, developed by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), and VSV-EBOV, developed by the Canadian government and licensed by NewLink Genetics and Merck.

A phase 1 trial of a prime-boost Ebola vaccine regimen from Johnson & Johnson launched in early January in the United Kingdom.

SCIENCE NEWS by Ashley Yaeger                               Feb. 14, 2015
SAN JOSE, Calif. — Genetic data are beginning to reveal how the Ebola virus causing the epidemic in Western Africa is evolving.

            LITTLE TWEAKS  A detailed look at genomes of the Ebola virus has pinpointed mutations that may make one type  of experimental therapy less effective. Cynthia Goldsmith/CDC

Scientists have deciphered the entire catalog of genetic data for 96 Ebola viruses taken from patients infected in 2014 during the first four months of the outbreak.

The results show that one particular clade, or type of the virus, is dominant among patients in Sierra Leone, suggesting that two other clades that dominated early on in the outbreak have died out.

This third clade appears to have evolved starting with a single mutation in the genetic catalog, or genome, of the virus, said Stephen Gire of Harvard University and the Broad Institute in Cambridge, Mass. He presented the preliminary findings February 14 at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Read full article.