You are here

Transportation

Conflicting Scenarios Exercise

I have been proposing that, rather than trying to foresee the future, we consider accepting and conducting further research on a much more fundamental, all-encompassing and long-term-resilient approach to our built environment.  I have been proposing that such an elemental approach should be structural adaptivity.  I believe that our world must and will give maximum adaptivity to the basic elements of our built environment to adjust to and meet our needs for the unpredictable, rapidly changing world over the next 50-100 years. 

 

 

In working on this, I conducted an Exercise.  I experimented with a number of different future conditions, or scenarios, that I think are quite possible.  The first two that drew my strongest concern were the conflicting scenarios of: (1) how planners might address our urban areas after global warming has abated – and the problem is continuous hot weather and more storms – as opposed to (2) how planners are now addressing the need to stop or slow down global warming.  I also experimented with additional scenarios that I do not think we are able to, presently, forecast accurately.  Most of them, however, I believe will surface eventually, in one way or another, and cause huge problems.

 

Country / Region Tags: 
Problem, Solution, SitRep, or ?: 

SOME FACILITATION EXAMPLES FOR STRUCTURAL ADAPTIVITY

  

I believe that structural adaptivity will become generally accepted in our world even without conscious effort.  As change continues speeding up, and as planners, developers, futurists, risk managers, and many others come to recognize that change is coming at an accelerating rate and that the future is ever more uncertain and unpredictable, they will focus on adaptivity.  However, the longer we wait for people to realize this, the greater the chances are that much harm will occur that should have been avoided or mitigated by the resilience we should have been already building.

 

The facilitation strategies and techniques that I propose are primarily intended to show some logical possibilities.  Hopefully other people will be better able than I am to come up with the best ones. 

 

For now, I will present the full list of the possibilities that I have come up with and then present a discussion of a few of them. <!--break-->

 

My full list:

Country / Region Tags: 
Problem, Solution, SitRep, or ?: 

A New Approach

I would like to share the results of my research, thinking and writing with the U. S. Resilience System in the hopes that its viewers can incorporate some of it into their own work.  I also hope to receive feedback so I can improve my ideas.

 

My background is in city and regional planning.  More recently it has expanded to include futures research.  I believe that the much-needed resilience many of us are seeking can best be achieved if we are working on immediate plans and actions plus long-range plans and actions at the same time.  Immediate or short-term actions are seldom sufficient by themselves.

 

Resilience to the wide variety of critical problems and uncertainties we expect to face this century requires systemic changes in our country and world.  It requires changes in the way we think, act, organize and communicate, and in what and where we build.  We slowly build our man-made environment to fit our needs and then our man-made environment shapes and controls us for many decades - even after our needs have changed. 

 

Country / Region Tags: 
Problem, Solution, SitRep, or ?: 

Parisians driven to revolt by car ban in fight against pollution

theguardian.com - March 16th, 2014 - Anne Penketh

The famously testy Parisians have one more reason to grumble after the French government announced that half the cars in the city would be banned from the roads, starting on Monday, in an effort to combat smog pollution.

From 5.30am, a scheme of alternating driving days, based on odd and even number plates, will come into effect for cars and motorcycles after Paris pollution reached dangerous levels for five consecutive days.

Even before the restrictions were announced, Parisians were given free travel on buses, metros and public bikes over the weekend.

(VIEW COMPLETE ARTICLE)

Country / Region Tags: 
Problem, Solution, SitRep, or ?: 

As Sea Ice Shrinks, Arctic Shipping Options Expand

Map of the Northwest Passage. Photo Credit: Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-ArendalPhoto: Map of the Northwest Passage. Photo Credit: Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal

earth-policy.org - December 19th, 2013 - Janet Larsen and Emily E. Adams

On October 7, 2013, the Nordic Orion bulk carrier ship completed its journey from Vancouver, Canada, to Pori, Finland, having traveled northward around Alaska and through the Northwest Passage.

It was the first large commercial freighter ever to make the voyage through these typically ice-covered Arctic waters.

Avoiding the longer journey, through the Panama Canal, reportedly saved $80,000 in fuel costs and five days in travel time.

(VIEW COMPLETE ARTICLE)

Country / Region Tags: 
General Topic Tags: 
Problem, Solution, SitRep, or ?: 

Air Transportation Data Helps Identify, Predict Pandemics

submitted by Luis Kun

homelandsecuritynewswire.com - December 13, 2013

Computational model demonstrates how disease spreads in a highly connected world. The computational work has led to a new mathematical theory for understanding the global spread of epidemics. The resulting insights could not only help identify an outbreak’s origin but could also significantly improve the ability to forecast the global pathways through which a disease might spread. . .

. . . Their study is published today (13 December) in the journal Science.

(READ COMPLETE ARTICLE)

RESEARCH - Science - The Hidden Geometry of Complex, Network-Driven Contagion Phenomena

 

Country / Region Tags: 
Problem, Solution, SitRep, or ?: 

London Evacuation

This report, produced for policy makers and practitioners, gives the results of a two-year project funded by the EPSRC (Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council) and the ESRC (Economic and Social Research Council) entitled ‘Game Theory and Adaptive Networks for Smart Evacuations’. The project brought together expertise from both the physical and social sciences to bring interdisciplinary work to bear on the issue of city evacuations in the 21st Century. In particular, issues of social media and mobile communications have revolutionised emergency management and evacuation policy and this was foremost in our minds when conducting the project.

City evacuations: preparedness, warning, action and recovery

Final report of the DFUSE project (41 page .PDF file)
(Game theory and adaptive networks for smart evacuations: EP/I005765/1)

Country / Region Tags: 
Problem, Solution, SitRep, or ?: 

Brave New World of Cuba Travel Begins Monday

      

A woman reads a passport application form as she waits in line outside an immigration office in Havana, Cuba, Monday, Jan. 7, 2013. A Cuban doctor says the Caribbean nation is eliminating longstanding restrictions on health care professionals' overseas travel as part of a broader migration reform. The doctor says hospital directors met Saturday with Health Minister Roberto Morales and were told of the new policy, effective Monday. For many years Cuban physicians have been limited in their ability to travel or had to undergo cumbersome bureaucratic procedures. But now they are supposed to be treated "like any other citizen" when it comes to traveling abroad. Franklin Reyes / AP

The new policy, which went into effect Monday, eliminates the need for an exit visa and allows many Cubans once barred from returning to the island to visit.

miamiherald.com - by Mimi Whitefield - January 14, 2013

A look into the future: Summer vacations by Cuban families in Miami, Cuban doctors and athletes who left their posts or teams while on official trips abroad returning to Cuba for visits and everyday Cubans permitted to leave the island for up to two years at a time.

Country / Region Tags: 
General Topic Tags: 
Problem, Solution, SitRep, or ?: 

How a new tool can help make supply chains stronger, more sustainable

greenbiz.com - September 3rd, 2012 - Amy Augustine

In the modern global economy, almost every company has a supply chain that reaches around the world. On Labor Day, a day when most Americans enjoy a day off to honor working men and women, we should acknowledge, too, the millions of invisible hands that are the backbone of these global supply chains. These are the people (too often children) who stitch the shirts on our backs, harvest the coffee beans that end up in our cups, and assemble the smart phones in our pockets, often toiling in conditions we can scarcely imagine.

(VIEW COMPLETE ARTICLE)

Country / Region Tags: 
General Topic Tags: 
Problem, Solution, SitRep, or ?: 

Pages

Subscribe to Transportation
howdy folks