Scenario Injection 3: Cross-Border Conflict

INJECTION: MYANMAR-THAILAND BORDER CONFLICT (EVENT+6 WEEKS)

220 persons have been reported killed in a section of the Myanmar-Thai border. It is unclear whether the deaths were caused directly by armed conflict or rioting sparked by food shortages in Myanmar and associated black market sales of rice and other staples.

The government of Myanmar has not provided regional support to the victims of Typhoon 2009001 and has reportedly been hoarding rice in anticipation of shortages due to the certain failure of the Vietnam rice crop over the next 2-3 years due to saltification of crop fields. Additionally, pressure from other countries relying on Vietnam rice imports is expected to increase.

ASEAN and other international organizations have expressed concern that growing tensions could spark further conflict in the region.