WHO weekly update on Swine Flu: "Moderate"

In the weekly update and question and answer session (5 PM every Tuesday from Geneva, Switzerland) WHO spokes person Dr. Keijii Fukuda reports confirmed infection in 64 countries. They are seeing travel related spread, as well as community spread of the virus with-in some countries. Mexico, United States and Canada are showing a mixed pattern of waxing and waning spread of the swine flu virus so that the flu will appear to be ending in a community, than re-surge.

Given the fact they do not have a full handle on the number of serious cases, or the full number infected across the spectrum of disease, WHO is staging the current situation as "moderate". It is not considered "mild" due to the fact the disease can be fatal to those with underlying disease, pregnant women, and those who are apparently healthy in the 20 to 40 year age group. It is worth noting that the young and healthy were reportedly most impacted in the 1918 Spanish flu. Thought the path the current swine influenza virus will take, can not be known right now.

In considering announcing a pandemic phase 6 (highest level), meeting have been held at the World Health Organization focusing upon multiple considerations for such an announcement: geographic spread, severity of the disease, potential economic and psycho-social impacts.

In the press conference there was discussion of disease severity involving more than the quality of the virus and its ability to harm people. Fukuda reminds us all, severity also includes the vulnerability and resilience of a population. With this novel H1N1, severity over time exists as an unknown.
When WHO goes to a phase 6 pandemic stage, there will likely be sub levels indicative of severity of the pandemic (perhaps as "Mild", "Moderate", "Severe"). I predict there will be many WHO announcements defining the severity levels of a pandemic.

In the question and answers phase of the June 2nd briefing, Fukuda neatly stated the issue of the moment is a new influenza virus; a virus we have not seen before. This virus is causing:
1) significant amounts of infection and disease in the Northern Hemisphere at a time of year when we typically do not see flu
2) disease and some deaths in an age range (20 to 40) which is NOT typical for seasonal influenza
3) concern, as the virus spreads into the southern hemisphere which is just now entering their regular flu season where influenza virus's typically thrive, WHO will be looking closely for unusual manifestations or virus changes that impact populations. Dr. Fukuda did not mince words in saying the big thing WHO is looking for is the "impact on populations: do we see disease populations that suggest the virus is becoming more dangerous than it all ready is."

WHO Influenza A(H1N1) press briefings are available to the public via audio files and in transcript form via the World Health Organization Media Centre.