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The Swedish experience: After deciding not to lock down, its COVID-19 death rate is up to 10 times higher than its neighbors

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  • Sweden decided not to implement a full-scale lockdown during the pandemic.

  • It now has up to 10 times as many COVID-19 deaths per capita as its Nordic neighbors.

  • Sweden also didn't fare much better economically, suggesting its gamble didn't pay off.

  • See more stories on Insider's business page.

Months before the first COVID-19 cases were detected, public-health experts ranked Sweden as one of the most prepared countries to handle a pandemic. But in March 2020, Swedish health authorities surprised the world with their unorthodox approach: Rather than locking down and requiring masks, as many countries did, Sweden let residents decide individually whether to take those precautions.

The gamble, Swedish authorities predicted, would pay off in the long run. Ideally, vulnerable people would choose to stay home, the economy wouldn't suffer too much, and healthy people might get mild COVID-19 cases that ultimately contributed to the population's collective immunity.

But a year and a half into the pandemic, it's clear that bet was wrong.

Sweden has recorded more COVID-19 cases per capita than most countries so far: Since the start of the pandemic, roughly 11 out of every 100 people in Sweden have been diagnosed with COVID-19, compared with 9.4 out of every 100 in the UK and 7.4 per 100 in Italy. Sweden has also recorded around 145 COVID-19 deaths for every 100,000 people - around three times more than Denmark, eight times more than Finland, and nearly 10 times more than Norway.

Had Sweden implemented tighter rules, experts told Insider, the country might have seen a COVID-19 death toll more similar to those Nordic neighbors. ...

 

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