May 6 Trend Update on the H1N1 Flu Outbreak of Spring 2009

It appears that the U.S. and Mexico are emerging out of their concern regarding 2009 H1N1 hitting as a rapidly spreading lethal outbreak this spring. We now have over 1000 confirmed cases and very possibly thousands of infections worldwide. These infections will still increase.

Mexico was hit particularly hard in terms of a concentrated number of deaths in a short period of time early on in the outbreak. There are about 500 confirmed cases and two deaths in the U.S. The 2009 H1N1 virus has created confirmed cases in 23 countries and over 30 states. That said the cases in the U.S. have not been more severe than the annual flu. There have been no deaths so far outside of Mexico and the U.S.

It would be prudent for the public health community to complete preparations and responses, even if this spring's 2009 H1N1 "Swine Flu" continues to be mild, as is now expected. We need to be prepared for a more lethal resurgence in the fall of 2009, and the possibility that the 2009 H1N1 virus may mutate during the flu season during June, July, and August in the southern hemisphere. Hopefully, the H1N1 virus will not mutate to come back with greater lethality like the "Spanish Flu" did in 1918. Even if the probability of that happening is low, this is a great opportunity to reflect on ensure that we are prepared for more serious events ahead.

Mike