The velocity of Ebola spread in parts of west Africa

THE LANCET by Kate Zinszer and others.                   Aug. 24,2015

In a speed outpacing control efforts, the Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic in parts of west Africa spread across Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone infecting an estimated 26 800 individuals and claiming more than 11 000 lives as of May 15, 2015.¹ Mobile populations coupled with porous borders^{1, 2} and commercial air travel patterns³ affected the frequency and breadth of Ebola virus transmission.

However, little is known about the speed and pattern of EVD spread in the countries most affected by the epidemic. Understanding the direction and rate of movement of a disease is crucial for response planning and, in particular, to guide the location and timing of public health and clinical interventions.
The goal of our analysis was therefore to calculate the velocity of spread of EVD in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone with publically available data from WHO. The methods are fully described in the appendix.
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