Grey Swan Hurricanes Pose Future Storm Surge Threat

About 80 percent of New Orleans was flooded when Hurricane Katrina's storm surge overwhelmed the city's levees.
Credit: Kelly Garbato/flickr

climatecentral.org - by Andrea Thompson - September 1, 2015

Black swans are catastrophic events that no one sees coming, while “grey swans,” as the are known, are extreme events for which there’s no historical precedent, but that could still potentially be predicted. A new study takes this concept into the realm of weather and climate, finding that global warming might sharply increase the odds of grey swan hurricanes and storm surge over the coming century.

While such tempests would still remain relatively rare, they could pose unrecognized but potentially serious threats to coastal areas like Tampa, Fla., and Dubai, with storm surge totals reaching into the double digits when measured in feet.

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