Historical Warnings of Future Food Insecurity with Unprecedented Seasonal Heat

David. S. Battisti1 and Rosamond L. Naylor2
1 Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, USA.
2 Program on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, USA

Science 9 January 2009:
Vol. 323. no. 5911, pp. 240 – 244 DOI: 10.1126/science.1164363

Available online at: http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/323/5911/240
“….Higher growing season temperatures can have dramatic impacts on agricultural productivity, farm incomes, and food security. We used observational data and output from 23 global climate models to show a high probability (>90%) that growing season temperatures in the tropics and subtropics by the end of the 21st century will exceed the most extreme seasonal temperatures recorded from 1900 to 2006. In temperate regions, the hottest seasons on record will represent the future norm in many locations. We used historical examples to illustrate the magnitude of damage to food systems caused by extreme seasonal heat and show that these short-run events could become long-term trends without sufficient investments in adaptation……..”.

CLIMATE CHANGE: Higher Temperatures Seen Reducing Global Harvests
Constance Holden
Science 9 January 2009: 193.
Summary: In a paper appearing on page 240 of this week's issue of Science, researchers apply 23 global climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to estimate end-of-century temperatures. Their conclusions with regard to agriculture are sobering.

Supporting Online Material
www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/323/5911/240/DC1