Odds That Global Warming is Due to Natural Factors: Slim To None

publications.mcgill.ca - April 12, 2014

Statistical analysis rules out natural-warming hypothesis with more than 99 per cent certainty

An analysis of temperature data since 1500 all but rules out the possibility that global warming in the industrial era is just a natural fluctuation in the earth’s climate, according to a new study by McGill physics professor Shaun Lovejoy.

The study, published online on April 6, in the journal Climate Dynamics, represents a new approach to the question of whether global warming in the industrial era has been caused largely by man-made emissions from the burning of fossil fuels. . .

. . . Lovejoy’s study applies statistical methodology to determine the probability that global warming since 1880 is due to natural variability. His conclusion: the natural-warming hypothesis may be ruled out “with confidence levels great than 99 per cent, and most likely greater than 99.9 per cent.”

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STUDY - Climate Dynamics - Scaling fluctuation analysis and statistical hypothesis testing of anthropogenic warming

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