THE ATLANTIC COUNCIL    October 1, 2014

 By J. Peter Pham

....beyond the immediate tragedy, there are significant short, medium, and long-term impacts that we are not even beginning to address.

First, the hardest hit countries—Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone—are already at the near bottom of the United Nations Development Program's Human Development Index. Furthermore, Liberia and Sierra Leone were just beginning to recover from decade-long civil wars that tore them apart, devastated their economies and basic infrastructure, and during which they suffered major population losses. Just as they were clawing their way back, these countries got hit with this health crisis.

Secondly, the estimated economic growth for these countries will be cut dramatically, according to the World Bank. Sierra Leone was expected to grow by more than 11 percent in 2014, but that's now revised down to roughly 8 percent. Liberia's growth was estimated to reach 6 percent, but it's expected to be half of that now. Guinea's economy was expected grow around 4.5 percent, and it's been revised to 2.4 percent. The reduced economic growth—from what was already at a low base—will have significant impacts on the lives of ordinary people, who are suffering from this health crisis.

For the governments of these three countries, this is a major blow, as they are expected to lose more than a quarter billion dollars in revenue they would otherwise collect. That shortfall will have to be met somehow or else the already precarious social, educational, and other governmental service systems in the three hard-hit countries are going to collapse even further.

Read the full commentary

http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/beyond-the-immediate-tragedy-ebola-s-long-term-implications