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Mathematical Modeling of the West Africa Ebola Epidemic

eLife 2015;10.7554/eLife.09186 - December 8, 2015
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.09186

Abstract

As of November 2015, the Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic that began in West Africa in late 2013 is waning. The human toll includes more than 28,000 Ebola virus disease (EVD) cases and 11,000 deaths in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone, the most heavily-affected countries. We reviewed 66 mathematical modeling studies of the EVD epidemic published in the peer-reviewed literature to assess the key uncertainties models addressed, data used for modeling, public sharing of data and results, and model performance. Based on the review, we suggest steps to improve the use of modeling in future public health emergencies.

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Identification of NPC1 as the Target of U18666A, an Inhibitor of Lysosomal Cholesterol Export and Ebola Infection

eLife 2015;10.7554/eLife.12177 - DECEMBER 8, 2015
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.12177

Abstract

Niemann-Pick C1 (NPC1) is a lysosomal membrane protein that exports cholesterol derived from receptor-mediated uptake of LDL, and it also mediates cellular entry of Ebola virus. Cholesterol export is inhibited by nanomolar concentrations of U18666A, a cationic sterol. To identify the target of U18666A, we synthesized U-X, a U18666A derivative with a benzophenone that permits ultraviolet-induced crosslinking. When added to CHO cells, U-X crosslinked to NPC1. Crosslinking was blocked by U18666A derivatives that block cholesterol export, but not derivatives lacking blocking activity. Crosslinking was prevented by point mutation in the sterol-sensing domain (SSD) of NPC1, but not by point mutation in the N-terminal domain (NTD). These data suggest that the SSD contains a U18666A-inhibitable site required for cholesterol export distinct from the cholesterol-binding site in the NTD. Inasmuch as inhibition of Ebola requires 100-fold higher concentrations of U18666A, the high affinity U16888A-binding site is likely not required for virus entry. 

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At Climate Talks, African Nations Pledge to Restore Forests

         

FILE - In this Sunday, March 21, 2010 file photo, shafts of sunlight filtering through the forest canopy strike smoke from fires burning outside family huts at an Mbuti pygmy hunting camp in the Okapi Wildlife Reserve outside the town of Epulu, Congo. Tree by tree, more than a dozen African governments pledged to restore the continent’s natural forests at the U.N. climate change talks in Paris on Sunday, Dec. 6, 2015. (Rebecca Blackwell,File/Associated Press)

CLICK HERE - World Resources Institute - African Countries Launch AFR100 to Restore 100 Million Hectares of Land

CLICK HERE - African Forest Landscape Restoration Initiative (AFR100)

CLICK HERE - Global Landscapes Forum

washingtonpost.com - by Lynsey Chutel - December 6, 2015

JOHANNESBURG — Tree by tree, more than a dozen African governments pledged to restore the continent’s natural forests at the United Nations climate talks on Sunday.

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How Climate Change is Behind the Surge of Migrants to Europe

             

Migrants and refugees arrive on Sykamia beach, west of the port of Mytilene, on the Greek island of Lesbos after crossing the Aegean sea from Turkey, on Sept. 22, 2015.  Iakovos Hatzistavrou—AFP/Getty Images

Even as Europe wrestles over how to absorb the migrant tide, experts warn that the flood is likely to get worse as climate change becomes a driving factor.

time.com - by Aryn Baker - September 7, 2015

. . . “You think migration is a challenge to Europe today because of extremism, wait until you see what happens when there’s an absence of water, an absence of food, or one tribe fighting against another for mere survival,” . . .

. . . Security analysts say they are already seeing the impact, particularly in migration patterns from northern Africa and the Sahel region, which is the band of farmland just below the Sahara desert. “All the indicators seem to fairly solidly convey that climate change — desertification and lack of water, or floods, are massively contributing to human mobility . . .

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Liberia: 'Blood Transfusion' - Responsible For New Ebola Outbreak

allafrica.com - November 27, 2015

Investigation conducted by this paper has established that unsafe blood transfusion is probably responsible for the new Ebola outbreak in Liberia.

A 15-year-old-boy was last weekend tested positive for Ebola and later pronounced dead on Tuesday. Dr. Francis Kateh, Chief Medical Officer of Liberia, said the boy's parents have also been tested positive for the virus and were undergoing observation.

The Ministry of Health and its partners are yet to disclose the source of the new outbreak, but a weeklong investigation conducted by this paper has established that blood recently transfused into the boy's mother at the Benson Hospital in Paynesville is the probable cause of the new Ebola infection.

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World Bank Calls for $16bn to Help Africa Weather the Effects of Climate Change

submitted by George Hurlburt

            

A young girl wades into water where the family kitchen once stood in Diamniadio Island, Saloum Delta in Senegal.
Photograph: Jane Hahn/AP

CLICK HERE - World Bank - Accelerating climate-resilient and low-carbon development : the Africa climate business plan

Africa climate business plan, emphasising clean energy, efficient farming and urban protection, will be launched by World Bank chief at Paris climate talks

theguardian.com - by John Vidal - November 25, 2015

The World Bank has devised a $16bn (£10.6bn) strategy designed to help Africa adapt to climate change and prevent millions of people from sliding into poverty.

By fast-tracking clean energy, efficient farming and urban protection, the measures promise to greatly increase renewable energy across the continent, bolster food production and lead to the planting of billions of trees. It is also hoped that the scheme will improve life in cities and reduce poverty, migration and conflict.

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Another American Ebola Survivor Had Eye Problems

Ebola survivor Dr. Richard Sacra experienced eye problems, including vision loss, pain and redness, shortly after he recovered from the disease.

Credit: Chancellor JR, Padmanabhan SP, Greenough TC, Sacra R, Ellison RT III, Madoff LC, et al. Uveitis and systemic inflammatory markers in convalescent phase of Ebola virusdisease. Emerg Infect Dis. 2016 Feb

CLICK HERE - STUDY - CDC - Uveitis and Systemic Inflammatory Markers in Convalescent Phase of Ebola Virus Disease

livescience.com - by Rachael Rettner - November 25, 2015

Ebola survivor Dr. Ian Crozier wasn't the only American to experience eye problems following the disease — a new report describes eye problems in another American doctor who lived through the disease.

Dr. Richard Sacra, who works for the Christian mission organization SIM USA, contracted Ebola last year while caring for pregnant women in Liberia during the rise of the Ebola outbreak there. He was evacuated to the United States for treatment in early September 2014, and was declared Ebola-free after spending about a month in the hospital.

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Panels Advise Bolstering W.H.O. for Crises Like Ebola

nytimes.com - by Sheri Fink - November 22, 2015

In recent months, numerous groups of health experts have gathered to debate how to prevent another crisis like the Ebola epidemic in West Africa, which jumped borders, spread fear across the globe, and directly killed more than 11,000 people. Many more died as hospitals and clinics closed for months.

Now two of those groups — one independent and the other convened by the World Health Organization — have released specific recommendations and called for urgent action. Both concluded that the W.H.O.’s outbreak and emergency response capacities should be strengthened and consolidated, protected from political meddling and independently overseen. The health organization is a United Nations agency.

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CLICK HERE - WHO - Advisory Group on Reform of WHO’s Work in Outbreaks and Emergencies with Health and Humanitarian Consequences

CLICK HERE - WHO - First report of the Advisory Group on Reform of WHO’s work in outbreaks and emergencies (20 page .PDF report)

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Interferon-γ Inhibits Ebola Virus Infection

submitted by George Hurlburt

                                                         

CLICK HERE - STUDY - Interferon-γ Inhibits Ebola Virus Infection

scicasts.com - November 19, 2015

The recent Ebola outbreak in West Africa has claimed more than 11,300 lives and starkly revealed the lack of effective options for treating or preventing the disease. Progress has been made on developing vaccines, but there is still a need for antiviral therapies to protect health care workers and local populations in the event of future outbreaks.

A new study led by University of Iowa virologist Dr. Wendy Maury, suggests that gamma interferon, which is an FDA-approved drug, may have potential as an antiviral therapy to prevent Ebola infection when given either before or after exposure to the virus.

The study, published in the journal PLOS Pathogens, found that gamma interferon, given up to 24 hours after exposure, can inhibit Ebola infection in mice and completely protect the animals from death.

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