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Link Removal for the Control of Stochastically Evolving Epidemics Over Networks: A Comparison of Approaches

submitted by George Hurlburt

CLICK HERE - Link Removal for the Control of Stochastically Evolving Epidemics Over Networks: A Comparison of Approaches

sciencedirect.com - Elsevier - February 16, 2015 - doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2015.02.005

Highlights

• Disease control efforts are often constrained by limited resources.
• Limited resources can be used more effectively by leveraging network information.
• We compare four link removal algorithms to prevent disease spread under a budget.
• Optimal quarantining performs best for large budgets and structured networks.
• Knowing where an outbreak begins is most valuable at moderate budget levels.

Abstract

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6 Challenges to Stamping Out Ebola

Despite a recent sharp drop in the overall number of Ebola cases, the situation remains precarious in West Africa

NATURE MAGAZINE  by Declan Butler                                                                    Feb. 24, 2015
More than a year since the start of one of the worst public health crises in recent history, Ebola cases have been tumbling in West Africa. But the epidemic is far from over: the risk of flare ups and further geographical spread will remain until there are no new cases.

The ease in case numbers means that public-health countermeasures and resources can be shifted in many places, from curbing runaway outbreaks to aggressively targeting the remaining, often smaller outbreaks....

At the same time, there is a danger of complacency. Reducing the number of cases to zero demands identifying and breaking all new chains of transmission, a task that still faces major obstacles—not least the fast approaching rainy season.

Highlighting the precariousness of the current situation, on February 20, the officials leading the United Nations' Ebola response efforts warned that the gains of the past few months risked unravelling.

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Ebola in Liberia: Keeping communities safe from contaminated waste

 WHO PRESS RELEASE                                                                                              Feb. 23, 2015

Every day, every bed in an Ebola treatment unit creates approximately 300 litres of liquid waste. Managing this waste has been a challenge in the Ebola outbreak in Liberia. WHO is working with partners to ensure this waste is effectively decontaminated and no longer poses a threat to health.

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New funding announced for US Ebola preparedness

THE HILL                        by Peter Sullivan                                                                 Feb. 20, 2015

WASHINGTON -- The Obama administration on Friday announced around $200 million in new funding to increase Ebola preparedness in the United States. 

The Department of Health and Human Services is giving grants to states to help set up 10 regional Ebola treatment centers, as well as hospitals in every state that can safely care for an Ebola patient until he or she is transferred. Combined with other funds, the move brings the total for local Ebola preparedness to around $340 million.

"Important lessons were also learned during the response effort," HHS said in a statement Friday. "Safety of health care workers must be foremost in health care system preparedness and response activities."

Read complete story.
http://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/233385-hhs-announces-new-funding-for-us-ebola-preparedness

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Life After Ebola: What It Takes For A Village To Be Resilient

NATIONAL PUBLIC RADIO INTERVIEW by Laura Starecheski                                     Feb. 20, 2015
BARKEDU,  LIBERIA --If you'd like to get an idea of what resilience is all about, take a lesson from Mamuedeh Kanneh.

She lost her husband to Ebola. But she's stayed strong. She's caring for 13 children, her own and orphans whose parents died of the virus.

Mamuedeh Kanneh was married to Laiye Barwor, the man who brought Ebola to Barkedu, Liberia. He died of the virus. She now cares for her children as well as children who lost their parents to the disease. John W. Poole/NPR

Kanneh lives in Barkedu, a village of about 6,000 in northern Liberia. Ebola took more than 150 lives. In her neighborhood there were many deaths, so people in other parts of Barkedu are scared of the orphans.

Kanneh has a strategy to help these children — and the village overall — get back to normal life. She sends the youngsters on errands so people can get used to seeing them and get over their fear. And the children can start to feel they're part of the community again....

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Finishing Off Ebola

NEW YORK TIMES  OP-ED BY Ron Klain, the former White House Ebola response coordinaor                                    FEB. 20, 2015

...The world needs to do a better job of quickly detecting and responding to future outbreaks in unlikely places. The President’s Global Health Security Agenda, the government’s strategy to combat infection disease around the world, will help. But vulnerable countries, including those in Africa, need their own version of our Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, so that they are not so dependent on ours.

For the hardest task of front-line epidemic fighting, our planet is too reliant on courageous and talented — but underfunded, under-equipped and volunteer-dependent — nongovernmental organizations. The world needs a permanent standing force — or a ready reserve that can be quickly organized — of public health emergency responders who have the training, gear and resources to race into a region in the early phases of epidemic control. The United States military cannot do that job every time; future outbreaks might occur in countries where our troops will not be welcomed as they were in West Africa.

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WHO approves breakthrough 15-minute Ebola test

REUTERS    by Tom Miles                             FeB. 20, 2015
GENEVA --The World Health Organization has approved the first rapid test for Ebola in a potential breakthrough for ending an epidemic that has killed almost 10,000 people in West Africa, it said on Friday.

The test, developed by U.S. firm Corgenix Medical Corp, is less accurate than the standard test but is easy to perform, does not require electricity, and can give results within 15 minutes, WHO spokesman Tarik Jasarevic said.

"It's a first rapid test. It's definitely a breakthrough," he said.

The standard laboratory test has a turnaround time of 12-24 hours. While the Corgenix test is not failsafe, it could quickly identify patients who need quarantine and make it much easier to verify rapidly any new outbreaks.

Read complete story.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/20/us-health-ebola-testing-idUSKBN0LO0R920150220

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CDC Ready to Vaccinate 6,000 Against Ebola in Sierra Leone

NBC NEWS by Maggie Fox                                                                             Feb. 19, 2015

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is helping prepare for a new Ebola vaccine trial in Sierra Leone, the country that's now the worst hit by the Ebola epidemic.

The CDC will work with Sierra Leonean authorities to vaccinate up to 6,000 health care workers, including doctors, nurses and ambulance drivers, against a virus that's infected more than 11,000 people in Sierra Leone alone, killing 3,400 of them.

This trial will test just one of the Ebola vaccines in development - one designed by U.S. and Canadian government researchers with a company called New Link Genetics and licensed to Merck. It uses an animal virus called vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV) to carry tiny pieces of the Ebola virus to help train the immune system to recognize it.

Read complete story.
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ebola-virus-outbreak/cdc-ready-vaccinate-6-000-against-ebola-sierra-leone-n308576

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3 pitfalls Ebola recovery must avoid

DEVEX   by Molly Anders                                                                                         Feb. 19, 2015

...While the Ebola crisis is far from over, officials in government and the international development community have begun to think more the medium and long term. What can they learn from past post-crisis recovery initiatives?

  Health worker Alivin Davis poses next to the a board featuring handprints of Ebola survivors in Liberia. Photo by: Neil Brandvold / USAID / CC BY-NC

Devex asked aid officials and government officials from the region how to avoid some of the most common pitfalls that can plague — haunt, even — recovery and reconstruction efforts. Here are three of them.

1. Quality over quantity.

....By not paying closer attention to the economic effects of foreign aid on the local market, humanitarian groups hurt livelihoods and slowed reconstruction in the country.

2. Prioritize local ownership....

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Rapid Detection and Response Are Essential to Stopping Ebola

THE HUFFINGTON POST  by, Director, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)                                                                                                                              Feb. 18, 2015

 The recent drop in Ebola cases in Liberia is welcome. Many factors are contributing to this decline, including the adoption of safe burials and the emphasis on quickly getting patients into Ebola treatment units or community care centers and community initiatives to isolate and care for patients and track contacts.

 

 

One promising development has been Liberia's creation of RITE teams (short for Rapid Isolation and Treatment of Ebola). These teams are slowing the epidemic, and CDC is working closely with governments and partners in Guinea and Sierra Leone to adopt similar rapid response strategies....

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