WHO Chief warns of second flu wave

Margret Chan, head of the World Health Organization warned in a interview with the Financial Times that swine flu may re-emerge stronger than ever even if the current outbreak appears to be declining.

From an article published 3 May, Chan told Britain’s Financial Times that an apparent decline in mortality rates did not mean the pandemic was coming to an end and a second wave may strike ‘with a vengeance.’ If it’s going to happen it would be the biggest of all outbreaks the world has faced in the 21st century,’ the paper quoted her as saying.

‘We hope the virus fizzles out, because if it doesn’t we are heading for a big outbreak. I’m not predicting the pandemic will blow up, but if I miss it and we don’t prepare, I fail. I’d rather over-prepare than not prepare.’ She said the end of the flu season in the northern hemisphere meant any initial outbreak could be milder, but a second wave more lethal.

She noted that the WHO agency’s highest “level six” pandemic alert did not necessarily mean “every country and every individual will be affected” with many more deaths. It is more accurate to say “it is a signal to public health authorities to take appropriate measures” such as intensified disease surveillance.

‘All governments are concerned and taking it extremely seriously. It’s a tough call,’ she revealed. ‘Given this type of information, can you imagine if I didn’t heighten awareness of public health officials around the world, and three or four days later it hit?’

She repeated the WHO's stance that travel restrictions are not productive based upon "the evidence and science available to us". She did defend the right of Hong Kong and New Zealand to quarantine travellers arriving with symptoms resembling flu. When asked if she would fly to Mexico right now, the paper quotes her as saying ”Absolutely. But if the authorities said they wanted to screen me on arrival, that would be fine.”

Revealed was the fact most of WHO's stockpile of Tamiflu had alreaady been released. Roche (manufacture of Tamiflu) has negotiatied to provide more and possibly to lower the prices. She gave indication that discussion are pushing towards a generic version to expand capacity and lower sale price.
Read: Interview: Margaret Chan and Chan hits back at WHO critics