Begin forwarded message:

From: Rachel Gruzen <rachelgruzen@hotmail.com>

Subject: Analyst Reaction: World Reaches 1,000GW of Wind and Solar, Keeps Going

Date: August 3, 2018 at 7:56:19 AM EDT

To: Thomas Bjurlof <thomas.bjurlof@gmail.com>

Cc: "Michael D. McDonald" <michael.d.mcdonald@mac.com>, Claudia Diaz <poolplayerclyde@aol.com>, Bonnie Brady <greenfluke@optonline.net>, Gary Cobb <12thgenbonacker@gmail.com>, Zachary Cohen <lzcohen@optonline.net>, Si Kinsella <Si@finkkinsella.com>, Rick Drew <rpdrew@hotmail.com>, "David J. Taylor" <taylor.davidj@gmail.com>, Douglas Broder <Douglas.Broder@klgates.com>

If we disagree with DWW we have to show that we’re not clueless about global trends and living under a rock, but that as Bonnie
says “do it now? or do it right” in East Hampton. 

Analyst Reaction  Thursday 02 August View full report World Reaches 1,000GW of Wind and Solar, Keeps Going by Albert Cheung Bloomberg NEF data indicate that the world has attained the landmark figure of 1TW of wind and solar generation capacity installed. This Analyst Reaction summarizes the state of play and looks ahead to the next terawatt of installations. Cumulative global solar PV and wind installations, historical and forecast Source: Bloomberg NEF •  New output from the BNEF database shows that there were 1,013GW of wind and solar PV generating capacity installed worldwide as of June 30, 2018. The 1TW milestone would have been passed sometime just before this date. The total is finely balanced between wind (54%) and solar (46%). •  The pace of installation is breathtaking. Total installed solar and wind capacity has doubled since mid-2014 and more than quadrupled since 2010. Solar PV in particular has been on a tear, with cumulative installed capacity growing 57-fold since the end of 2007, and twofold since 2015. •  The Asia Pacific region is now the center of gravity for both wind and solar deployments, accounting for 44% and 58% of cumulative installations in those sectors respectively. China alone hosts 35% of the world’s wind capacity and 34% of its solar.  •  The first terawatt (by definition) took all of human history to achieve, with about 90% of installations occurring in the last 10.5 years. We estimate that the second terawatt of wind and solar will arrive by mid-2023, just five years from now, and cost 46% less than the first. View full report  Related Insights 01  2Q 2018 Global PV Market Outlook The new BNEF global PV installation forecast for 2018 is 103-112GW. China’s government is trying to slow down the country’s rooftop PV boom, leading us to drop 10GW from the optimistic scenario. Meanwhile, India and Turkey’s solar markets are stronger than previously expected. There is plenty of supply at the right price.    02  2Q 2018 Global Wind Market Outlook The sector is gearing up for a three-year high in installations. Global differences in prices between regions seem to be converging slowly, driven by auctions and global competition between the major turbine makers. However, auction results can only ever be as good as the quality of projects coming to market – in Brazil, prices have reached record-lows while in Germany they are back where they started – for now.   03  Will the PV Market Shrink for the First Time Ever in 2018? On June 1, Chinese authorities announced that they would restrict new solar installations, a move which prompted us to revise the country’s annual demand down by 19-21GW throughout 2018-2020, under our mid-scenario forecast. This note analyzes the wider impact of China’s policy change and whether if other markets outside of China will make up for the reduced demand. (On July 5, BNEF corrected its optimistic scenario number in Figure 1 from 104.3GW to 107.4GW for 2018. The conservative scenario number is confirmed at 95GW.)

Rachel Gruzen 

rachelgruzen@hotmail.com

(917) 796-2128

On Aug 3, 2018, at 7:49 AM, Rachel Gruzen <rachelgruzen@hotmail.com> wrote:

In Bloomberg energy news yesterday of you have a subscription: Price Of U.S. Offshore Plummets, Tax Credits Help Bloomberg New Energy Finance Analyst Reaction Lead Author: Tom Harries August 2, 2018 at 1:13 PM “Offshore wind is a new entry in the U.S., but Vineyard Wind just promised to build a project off Massachusetts for the same price as projects in Germany, and cheaper than those in the U.K. This sets a precedent for New York’s offshore wind auction later this year. It also signals to governments of fledgling markets that cheap offshore wind is exportable to non-European waters.”

Rachel Gruzen 

rachelgruzen@hotmail.com

(917) 796-2128