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Models overestimate Ebola cases

Rate of infection in Liberia seems to plateau, raising questions over the usefulness of models in an outbreak

NATURE  International Weekly Journal of Science                                     Nov. 4, 2014
by Declan Butler

The Ebola outbreak in West Africa has infected at least 13,567 people and killed 4,951, according to figures released on 31 October by the World Health Organization (WHO). Now, in a rare encouraging sign, the number of new cases in Liberia seems to be flattening after months of exponential growth. Scientists say it is too soon to declare that the disease is in retreat: case data are often unreliable, and Ebola can be quick to resurge. But it is clear that mathematical models have failed to accurately project the outbreak’s course.

 The reality of the Ebola outbreak is not reflected by model projections of high case numbers. Daniel Berehulak/NYT/Redux/eyevine

Researchers are now struggling to understand whether reports of empty beds at treatment centres and declining burial numbers are signs that fewer people are developing Ebola, or whether cases and deaths are going unrecorded.....

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Treating Ebola: The Bluetooth Method

Keeping hands-off without abandoning the patient.

NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC                               Nov. 3, 2014
By Melissa Pandika

Description of the way that the University of Nebraska Medical Center, which has successfully treated two Ebola patients, uses blue tooth technology and the " no-touch approach."

Members of the Department of Defense's Ebola Military Medical Support Team dress with protective gear during training at San Antonio Military Medical Center in San Antonio. Photograph by Eric Gay, AP

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http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/11/141106-science-ebola-cure-medicine-health-africa-disease-technology/

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Thousands break Ebola quarantine to find food

ASSOCIATED PRESS                                                                              Nov. 4, 2014

by Sarah DiLorenzo

DAKAR, Senegal (AP) — Thousands of people in Sierra Leone are being forced to violate Ebola quarantines to find food because deliveries are not reaching them, aid agencies said....

Large swaths of the West African country have been sealed off to prevent the spread of Ebola, and within those areas many people have been ordered to stay in their homes.

The government, with help from the U.N.'s World Food Program, is tasked with delivering food and other services to those people. But there are many "nooks and crannies" in the country that are being missed, Jeanne Kamara, Christian Aid's Sierra Leone representative, said Tuesday....

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http://news.yahoo.com/thousands-break-ebola-quarantine-food-124818527.html

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Journey to the center of an epidemic

A Pulitzer winning science writer's saga of flying to the Ebola zones of Liberia
 
FOREIGN POLICY                                  Nov. 3, 014
By Laura Garrett

MONROVIA, Liberia — The journey to Liberia tests the mettle of any American wanting to help the nation in its Ebola crisis. The trek really begins with fears about how the Samaritan will be received once he or she returns from the epidemic, facing quarantines and stigma. And the first leg lands the traveler in a political and cultural climate in steamy West Africa marked by resilience in the face of genuine threat.

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Ebola Travel Bans Buy Only Time, Not Safety

BLOOMERG BUSINESS WEEK                                                                                            Nov. 4, 2014
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...Blocking most travel from Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone, where a total of more than 13,000 people have been infected with Ebola since the outbreak began in March, would only modestly reduce how long it takes for the virus to reach new countries, according to mathematical simulations published in the journal Eurosurveillance. For example, stopping 71 percent of travelers from entering other nations in Africa from the three countries in which Ebola is widespread would delay a case from appearing elsewhere on the continent by only 30 days, according to the model. ...


Medical staff wait for passengers arriving from Guinea at the airport in Abidjan on Oct. 20,as Ivory Coast's airline resumed flights to the three west African countries worst-hit by Ebola. Photograph by Issouf Sanogo/AFP via Getty Image

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Fresh Ebola outbreak in Sierra Leone raises fears of new infection chain

THE GUARDIAN                                    Nov. 4, 2014
By Lisa  O'Carroll

A fresh outbreak of Ebola in a part of Sierra Leone where the virus was thought to have been contained has raised fears of a new, uncontrolled infection chain that could send the death toll soaring.

A Red Cross ambulance team was sent to the remote district of Koinadugu, which had prided itself on being the only area to have kept Ebola at bay, on Tuesday to urgently collect 30 corpses for medical burial.

A family home under quarantine in the Port Loko district of Sierra Leone, where the Ebola outbreak is widespread. Photograph: Michael Duff/AP

The outbreak is a major setback for the Ebola response force and the district, which two weeks ago remained resolved to control the spread of the virus that has officially infected 5,338 people and claimed 1,510 lives in the country.

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Fighting an Epidemic With Hands Tied

Detailed discussion of the difficulties in recruiting health workers for West Africa

A health care worker dressed in protective clothing in an Ebola ward last month in Liberia. Organizing workers in West Africa has been a problem. Credit Daniel Berehulak for The New York Times

 NEW YORK TIMES                                Nov. 4, 2014
By LAWRENCE K. ALTMAN, M.D.

WASHINGTON — Hundreds of government and civilian workers of all stripes, and thousands of military personnel, have braved the terrifying prospect of infection to respond to the Ebola emergency in West Africa. And thousands more will be needed for an effort that is expected to go well into 2015.

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Canada contributes more money, but no medical workers in Ebola fight

TORONTO GLOBE AND MAIL                               Nov. 3, 2014
By Kelly Grant
Canada is spending another $30.5-million to fight Ebola, but Ottawa is still not answering pleas from international aid organizations for medical personnel to care for the ill in West Africa.

The bulk of the money announced on Monday – $23.5-million – will be spent on testing a Canadian vaccine and an experimental therapy, ZMapp, both of which were developed largely at the National Microbiology Lab in Winnipeg....

A lab technician at the National Microbiology Lab in Winnipeg, Manitoba November 3, 2014.
(LYLE STAFFORD/THE CANADIAN PRESS)

Canada has so far dispatched two mobile laboratories with rotating teams of scientists to rapidly diagnose or rule out Ebola in Sierra Leone.

But Ottawa has been reluctant to send medical staff to West Africa because the government cannot guarantee they could be airlifted out if they fall ill.

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Ebola: Abbott government relents, will send Australian volunteers to treat victims

SYDNEY MORNING HERALD                       Nov. 4, 2014
By Peter Hartcher

SYDNEY, Australia--The Abbott government is set to announce that it will assist several hundred Australian expert volunteers travel to one of the Ebola hotspots of Africa to help control the epidemic.

Australian Prime Minister ABBOTT. The government has struck an agreement to manage a British field hospital in Sierra Leone, according to diplomatic sources. Photo: Alex Ellinghausen

An official announcement is expected on Wednesday.

It is the first hands-on help that the government has agreed to give. To now, it has resisted sending personnel and given financial aid only.

The government agreed to contribute to the international effort to halt the epidemic at source only after making evacuation plans for any Australian volunteer who might become infected. Britain has agreed to treat Australian volunteers as if they were their own, officials said.

Any infected Australian worker would be evacuated to Britain for treatment. There is also provision for access to treatment in Germany under a British arrangement.

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As Ebola declines in Liberia, health officials reassess response plans

WASHINGTON POST                           NOV. 3, 2014

By Lenny Bernstein

MONROVIA, Liberia — The rate of new Ebola infections here has declined so sharply in recent weeks that even some of the busiest treatment facilities are now only half-full and officials are reassessing the scale of the response needed to quell the epidemic....

No one tracking the outbreak is close to declaring the deadly hemorrhagic disease vanquished, and all are wary that the virus, which has receded at times over the past seven months, could suddenly flare again in this impoverished country, the epicenter of the West African Ebola catastrophe.

But five days after the World Health Organization said new infections were declining in Liberia, a 157-bed treatment center in the city of Foya, where the epidemic began seven months ago, held no patients Monday, according to a nurse there. The same facility received no new admissions last Wednesday, the most recent day for which government statistics were available...

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