Africa

THE BOSTON GLOBE                                  Nov. 3, 2014

By Carolyn Y. Johnson

Northeastern University researchers use computers to simulate 20 million virtual Ebola outbreaks each week. Yale scientists are building three models that project the spread of the deadly disease. And a team at Boston Children’s Hospital is combing through data to gauge whether medical interventions are working.

....  they are providing a constant stream of evidence that is beginning to reveal the weak spots of the epidemic. For example, scientists’ models are beginning to identify basic patterns of who is being infected and when and how Ebola is being spread, which could help identify the most meaningful ways to intervene.

...According to their model, isolating three-quarters of the patients within the first four days that they show symptoms would help eliminate the disease.

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http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2014/11/02/ebola-disease-modelers-new-england-help-predict-future-spread-best-strategies/LZHSEGlInJs6SflLWW0yaP/story.html

REUTERS                                         Nov. 3, 2014
By Tom Miles

GENEVA- Thirty-nine people who traveled on buses with a toddler who died from Ebola in Mali are still being sought for checks, although the country is believed to be free of the disease, the World Health Organization said on Monday.

A WHO spokeswoman said 108 contacts were being followed up, including 33 health workers, but epidemiologists believe those who have not been traced are at low risk, as they are unlikely to have had physical contact with the sick two-year-old.

The girl's five-year-old sister had a fever but was suffering from malaria, not Ebola, tests showed. Other family members are under observation in the same hospital and doing well, with no fever or other symptoms, the WHO said.

A New Application Matches Patient’s Travel and Family History With Medical Symptoms

WALL STREET JOURNAL                         Nov. 3, 2014
By Melina Beck

A month ago, Massachusetts General Hospital in Boston had no way to flag in its electronic medical records if an incoming patient had been to West Africa and had symptoms suggesting Ebola.

Now it does. Five days after the first U.S. case was confirmed in Texas, the hospital deployed a new Ebola application made by QPID Health Inc. that automatically matches a patient’s travel and family history with medical symptoms. If Ebola is suspected, the application flashes a blinking “Q” to alert hospital personnel.

Dr. Garry Choy, who helped design Mass General’s QPID system. Dominick Reuter

BBC                                                                                  Nov. 1, 2014

By James Gallagher Health editor, BBC News website

LONDON--There is growing - but certainly guarded - talk within the World Health Organization that the overall number of new cases is levelling off.

...Dr Christopher Dye, the director of strategy in the office of the director general at the World Health Organization, has the challenge of predicting the spread of Ebola.

"Things clearly have changed with respect to the trajectory of the epidemic," he told the BBC News website....

Dr Dye added: "When we look at the total epidemic now, with the best information we have got available I would guardedly say that the case incidence per week is not going to get larger than it is at the moment, so around 1,000 cases per week.

"We know there's under-reporting so we have to emphasise caution, but broadly we're out of this big epidemic growth phase seen in August and September."

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http://www.bbc.com/news/health-29847058